But any fantasy football owner with any sense had to question LT's durability - the very reason he fell in fantasy football drafts. To offset the danger you would lose your 1st or 2nd round investment, a wise fantasy owner who drafted LT decided to handcuff LT to Darren Sproles.
Darren Sproles is small, but explosive, and he's shown the last two years that he can put up big fantasy football numbers when given the chance. For that reason, he became one of the best ff handcuffs in After LT couldn't make it through the 1st half of the Chargers' first game, fantasy owners who didn't handcuff Sproles to Tomlinson were crying.
Not everyone thinks to handcuff runners or thinks handcuffing is a good idea. Because someone in your league was likely to jump out there and grab Darren Sproles, you had to draft him at least by the 8th or 9th round in most fantasy formats. This meant you were grabbing Sproles when you could have grabbed another solid wide receiver, a good backup quarterback, one of the last remaining starting RB's or even a 2nd-tier starting tight end or top tier defense in leagues that's important.
But if each selection you make has an average win rate, your overall win equity will remain at 8. The chart below shows the increase in necessary win equity as a result of each subsequent pick with an average win rate.
Imagine you have a deadline on a project that requires hours of work. When the draft starts you only have an 8. Handcuffing does not help you improve upon those odds, it merely protects against the loss of a floor that is precarious to begin with.
Throwing away an opportunity to generate ceiling has a damaging knock on effect that puts additional pressure on each of the rest of your picks. That is the same way we should approach the contingent value of complimentary running backs. Running backs, especially in the double digit rounds, are not drafted according to projection.
For instance, if we knew Dalvin Cook would play 17 games, Alexander Mattison would not even be drafted. However, fantasy gamers have decided at a certain point, the upside of Mattison if Cook were injured is enough to justify the loss in standalone value. If you roster a starter and handcuff and the starter remains healthy and effective, the handcuff has their contingent value robbed from their pre-draft outlook and will cause a downturn in win equity.
Your best case scenario is a small loss, and your worst case scenario mildly mitigating a larger loss. If you draft a handcuff you never use your win equity declines. The cost is likely even higher. Unlike best ball where your chances to generate win expectancy expire after the draft, handcuffing in redraft has further costs. Early weeks on the waiver wire offer the highest asymmetrical upside to pick up possible league winners for the low cost of a bench spot.
This can cost you a potentially league-altering waiver claim, or force you to drop a higher upside player from your bench. The cost of devoting a bench spot to your handcuff extends far beyond the draft. In a study by J. Zachariason , 54 running backs were drafted between Rounds 7 and 15 behind a top running back from How does that make any sense? The same goes for handcuffing in fantasy football. You are basically buying an insurance policy for your top runner: an insurance policy that will only be effective maybe if your best player gets injured.
Meaning that your move will only pay off if you lose your best guy. Look around the league at all of the teams that are using a running back by committee system. There is no denying that it is an effective NFL strategy. You have two or more good running backs, and you make them share time. It keeps their legs fresh, lowers the chance for injury and allows a change of pace to throw off the defense. Do you want to know why Steven Jackson had rushes last year for the Rams and his backup, Kenneth Darby only had 34?
He has proven in years past, and practices, and training camps that he is not a starter. So why does it make sense to draft him for your fantasy football team? The answer is yes. He will return to the starters role when healthy.
He will be the starter when he returns. Carson will be the starter when he returns. American Football. McKissic Jaret Patterson. Who to start in fantasy football: Week 10 rankings, start-sit advice for PPR, standard, superflex scoring.
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